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Voting has commenced for parliamentary elections in Holland, with current polling data suggesting that the far-right leader Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) may repeat their win the most seats, though experts suggest PVV stands little chance of being part of the next government.

Survey Results and Election Dynamics

The PVV, which in the last election pulled off a surprise top result and established a multi-party right-leaning coalition that lasted barely a year, is currently slightly leading in surveys and is projected to secure between 24 and 28 MPs in the 150-member parliament.

However, PVV's support has declined since 2023, when it won 37 seats. Every significant political group have publicly ruled out forming a government with Wilders, who precipitated the collapse of the outgoing coalition in June amid disagreements concerning his radical immigration proposals.

Key Contenders and Projections

Following a campaign dominated by issues such as migration, medical expenses, and the country's acute housing crisis, the centre-left GL/PvdA coalition, headed by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is placed a near second, projected to win between 22 to 26 parliamentary seats.

Also performing well is the liberal-progressive Democrats 66, projected to increase its seat count by almost five times to 21-25 seats, while the centre-right CDA is expected to more than double its seat tally to between 18 and 22.

Members of the previous government – comprising the PVV, liberal-conservative VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and NSC – are all forecast to see their representation reduced, with several experiencing significant declines.

Electoral System and Fragmentation

In the Netherlands' electoral system, gaining just 0.67% of the national vote earns a party one MP. Of the 27 parties participating in the vote – which include senior-focused parties, for youth, animal rights parties, for a universal basic income, and sports parties – as many as 16 may gain entry to parliament.

This significant fragmentation means that no one party is ever likely to secure a majority, and the Netherlands has been ruled by coalitions – typically composed of four parties in the last few administrations – for more than a century.

Government Formation

Wilders has stated that "democracy will be dead" in the country if the PVV becomes the largest party yet is shut out of power. But, critics and analysts say that first place does not guarantee government participation and that any governing alliance with a majority is democratically valid.

Although the final outcome is hard to predict and government negotiations may require months, political observers suggest that after the most extreme government in its recent history, the future government is expected to be a inclusive alliance headed by either the moderate left or centrist right.

Election Day Details

Polling stations, including those in the miniature city Madurodam in the capital and the Anne Frank house in Amsterdam, began operations at 7:30 AM (6:30 GMT) and will conclude at 9:00 PM. A usually accurate post-voting survey is anticipated soon after closing time.

After the vote, an official negotiator will test possible coalitions that could secure enough support in parliament. Potential partners will then negotiate an agreement for the coming term and must undergo a vote of confidence in the house before taking office.