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Only two days prior to the NYC mayoral election, political analyst Michael Lange made a significant electoral prediction – not just the winner citywide, but precinct by precinct. The analyst, an expert in elections born and raised in New York City, devoted over a decade in left-leaning activism and emerged as a kind of local celebrity recently for his deep dives into municipal statistics and polling.

He published his highly detailed forecast map – accurately predicting that the progressive candidate would win although failed to predict Andrew Cuomo’s solid showing – on his Substack, the Narrative War. He possesses a talent for clever terms. He highlighted, as an example, the divide between the progressive stronghold, stretching from one neighborhood to Bushwick to Astoria, where he predicted (correctly) that Mamdani would triumph by large leads, and the conservative-leaning zone on Manhattan’s Upper East and Upper West Sides. There, “the Free Press and financial newspapers surpass the mainstream paper” in readership and the majority of electors leaned toward the independent, who ran as a moderate alternative.

Voting Day Trends and Unexpected Results

How was your night?

It was necessary because they were adding approximately 200K votes into the system every few minutes! I was actually somewhat anxious initially: The candidate was ahead the initial ballots by a dozen percentage points, but came two big batches of votes that came in later and his lead dropped from 12 to 8%. I was worried.

Understand, it was possible in which election day went kind of poorly for him, where the opponent was going to end up essentially increasing his support from the earlier contest. But Mamdani gained half a million supporters to his initial base, and that’s a huge reason why he won. He went out and greatly broadened his base from the first round.

Expanding Support

How did the mayor-elect get those extra votes from?

He assembled the alliance that progressives always wanted to build: it’s multiracial, youthful, tenants and it’s people squeezed by affordability. He gained considerably with minority communities, working- and middle-class voters, compared to the primary. Additionally he further maximized his base of left-leaning activists, youthful radicals, and Muslims and south Asians. Victory required without making those significant inroads.

He created the coalition that progressives long aimed for: diverse, young, tenants and people squeezed by affordability

There were also a number of Trump/Mamdani voters – is that a big trend?

It’s definitely a genuine phenomenon, limited to Hispanic laborers, Asian communities and Muslims. Voters in ethnic enclaves that supported the former president last year went for Zohran now. However it’s not that he was gaining white working-class voters and Maga voters.

Voter Participation and Effects

A major development of the election was the record turnout. Who did that help?

Both sides. Turnout was much greater than anticipated. I thought we might exceed 2 million, but it reached 2.3 million – that is a lot of darn voters. Existed a decent opposition group, who were motivated, but the Mamdani base was also motivated, and that was enough to win.

You forecasted he’d get over half the ballots. Is he on course for that?

Right now you would say he’s favored to get over half. He’s at 50.4% but there’s still probably 200K ballots left to report at that time. So I don’t think certain, but I think probable, and I hope he achieves it so afterwards none can claim Sliwa was a spoiler.

GOP Decline

The GOP candidate, the Republican candidate, was another surprise. His vote completely collapsed.

He didn’t win a single precinct in any borough. Not even one neighborhood in Staten Island, which is like an 88% Trump neighborhood. That truly was unexpected. Cuomo kept Caucasian districts, affluent zones and devout communities, and then added all of these conservatives on the island with a strong turnout. I believe there was significant tactical voting by GOP voters. They were doing it before the former president endorsed for the candidate, but that definitely helped. It might have changed the outcome if the winning alliance failed to expand.

Progressive Strongholds

Regarding your often-discussed left-wing base – was support for Mamdani overwhelming in those parts of Brooklyn and Queens?

In my view there was a little dilution of the commie corridor in some areas like neighborhoods that have older Caucasian residents. In Astoria, instance, the property owners and residents supported the independent. So there was some opposition. However no, largely the commie corridor is a key factor why Zohran won – he scored between 77% and 83% in Fort Greene, Clinton Hill and Bushwick.

Jewish Voters

In the lead-up to the vote we reported on if Mamdani was gaining ground with Jewish New Yorkers. Is there any suggestion that he did?

There are neighborhoods with a lot of secular and more progressive-leaning Jews – such as specific locales – where he performed strongly. However in the affluent districts such as the Manhattan area, his Middle East stance definitely mattered there. Likewise in the more middle-class Jewish areas like Queens neighborhoods, or Spuyten Duyvil and Riverdale – they all leaned Cuomo. Plus, you have newcomers from the former Soviet Union in the borough, who were strongly Cuomo. So it’s unclear if there were crazy narrative-busters here, but Mamdani did hold more progressive Jewish neighborhoods and even parts of the another locale by big margins.

Long-Term Significance

Has Mamdani rewritten what the city means politically? Will progressive base serve as a springboard for progressive contenders?

Absolutely, it’s no coincidence that some of the biggest political leaders from the left hail from a few areas in the boroughs. I believe that there will be more of that – people will come from these areas to be promoted to higher office.

However I believe that every city in America could develop similar progressive hubs. Cities are the centers of progressive influence in the nation – since they’re young, people rent and they are places where people are crushed by the disparities we face.